Equation Reveals How Famous Conspiracy Theories Become Exposed

By Ana Verayo, | January 27, 2016

Fake moon landing? The Apollo 11 landing is real, as proven by this new equation.

Fake moon landing? The Apollo 11 landing is real, as proven by this new equation.

Using a mathematical equation, a scientist has discovered to disprove many popular conspiracy theories.

This special formula was developed by Davide Grimes from the University of Oxford, demonstrating how the number of people involved in these elaborate conspiracies such as the fake moon landings, can lead to potential exposure of the hoax.

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Grimes proves that if a secret would have remained hidden for more than 100 years, then this would have involved a maximum of 125 people but, when a hoax involves more than 2,521 people, then the secret will be exposed in just a matter of five years.

For example, the moon landings happened in 1969 where it involved more than 400,000 NASA officials and employees. This means that this could not be faked and remained a secret until now, based on the formula.

Grimes explains how conspiracies are easier dismissed along with their proponents however in this new study, this formula takes the opposite approach, to prove if conspiracies might be possible, further investigating the crucial requirement in viable consipiracy-secrecy.

This theory is based on the impression that only a certain number of people can keep a secret for only a limited amount of time and when more people know about this secret, the lesser time it remains a secret.

This equation also considers other important factors such as the probability that a conspiracy can be accidentally revealed by a whistle blower. Evidence from this include real life conspiracies such as Edward Snowden's NSA Prism project.

Grimes also believes that if ever there was a plot make the moon landings fake, this would have been revealed in three years and eight months, where as the climate change conspiracy should have already been exposed in three years and nine months.

This new study also criticized medical conspiracies such as the vaccination conspiracy, that would have already been exposed in three years and two months and a hidden cure for cancer that would have been also revealed in three years and three months.

Not all conspiracies are the same where others do not require active maintenance. These often involve various factors that are taken into consideration for calculation, such as how many were plotters, length of time and the effects when conspirators die.

Grimes adds that many conspiracies often involve science. Conspiracy theories about the fake moon landings could be seen as harmless however wrong information about vaccines can even become fatal and, not all conspiracies are wrong, such as some of Snowden's revelations leading to hidden activities of the United States National Security Agency.

This new study is published in the journal, PLOS ONE.

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