New Algorithm Can Predict Killer, Rogue Waves Saving Lives at Sea

By Ana Verayo, | February 29, 2016

MIT scientists can now predict rogue waves at sea within a 2-3 minute timeframe.

MIT scientists can now predict rogue waves at sea within a 2-3 minute timeframe.

Scientists have now developed a successful early warning system for dangerous, rogue waves that can save the lives of vessel crews at sea.

Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed how these type of ocean waves can strike any time even during calm waters without any sort of visual warning that can reach up to eight times the height of the surrounding sea, damaging and even destroying ships and smaller vessels like boats.

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Now, this new prediction tool can provide the crew a two to three minute warning before an imminent rogue wave arrives.This phenomenon has been observed for centuries, but these killer, freak waves have been more prevalent in the past decades.

To date, rogue waves that are headed towards ships are limited to predictions carried out by a room full of supercomputers which occupy too much space for smaller fishing boats and ships. This new prediction tool can help give sailors enough time to shut down ship operations or from an offshore platform.

According to MIT's Themis Sapsis, its precision lies in predicting the location accurately, and the time when a rare, rogue wave will occur. He adds how within a crucial timeframe, information received from that time, there are a range of possibilities also determining how dangerous a wave is.

Engineers approached waves based on observations when these dangerous waves are grouped together as they travel through the ocean. Results revealed that these waves swap energy among each other that lead to a rogue wave formation.

These common patterns among rogue waves have been identified in this new study, where data provided necessary measurements from buoys in the ocean, combined with nonlinear analysis of underwater wave equations.

Researchers have calculated the significant changes how rogue waves form, analyzing and identifying which clusters can potentially form rogue waves, resulting in a simple algorithm that can predict incoming rogue waves.

This new method developed by the MIT researchers also requires LIDAR and RADAR along with a laptop to perform this calculation. By performing this, crews are alerted, providing them enough time to evacuate the deck and observe precautionary measures before impending disaster.

This new study is published in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 

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